Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill
Public Bill Committee, 12 February 2019.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Before we begin, I have a few preliminary announcements. As usual, please switch off your mobile phones—I have done so. Tea and coffee are not allowed, and we have been told to be strict about that—I am a tea-oholic myself, but I am afraid it is just water.
Today we will consider the programme motion on the amendment paper. We will then consider a motion to enable the reporting of written evidence for publication, and then a motion to allow us to deliberate in private about our questions before the oral evidence session. In view of the time available, I hope that we can take these matters formally, without debate.
I call the Minister to move the programme motion, which was discussed yesterday by the Programming Sub-Committee for the Bill.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
That means that the deadline for amendments to be considered at the Committee’s first sitting for line-by-line consideration will be the rise of the House on Thursday 21 February.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Copies of written evidence that the Committee receives will be made available in the Committee Room.
Examination of Witnesses
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Welcome, everyone. I want our two witnesses to enjoy the session. I do not know whether you have appeared before parliamentarians before, but you are not on trial. You both look innocent as far as I am concerned. It is really just a question of Committee members getting information from your good selves, which will help them when they deliberate the Bill.
We will now hear evidence from Professor Bernard Ryan, of the University of Leicester, and Professor Alan Manning, who chairs the Migration Advisory Committee. I remind all Members that questions should be limited to matters within the scope of the Bill, and that we must stick to the timings in the programme motion that the Committee has agreed—I hope that colleagues have the timings in front of them. They are either half an hour or an hour.
The scope of the Bill is quite narrow. It is not a wide-ranging immigration Bill. It would end free movement of European economic area and Swiss nationals in the United Kingdom, and questions should be focused on the effects of that, rather than on wider immigration matters. I ask that witnesses also try to keep their comments focused on the scope of the Bill. We have until half-past 10 for this witness panel.
Do any members of the Committee wish to declare any relevant interests in connection with the Bill?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
In relation to this afternoon’s sitting, I am a founding trustee of Focus on Labour Exploitation, but I cannot be here for that part of the sitting anyway.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Q It is very good of you to make us aware of that. I assume that there are no further interests to declare. Would the panel members please introduced themselves?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Good morning, both of you. Let me start with two questions for Professor Ryan. You said in your written evidence that we need a legislative guarantee for EU citizens’ rights in the event of no deal. Why is that necessaryQ ?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Professor Ryan, may I ask you about clause 2, which relates to Irish citizens? Obviously, the rights of Irish citizens and the common travel area were outlined in the Immigration Act 1971. What does the Bill do to that? Does it add to it? Is clause 2 necessary?Q
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q Am I understanding you correctly? You feel that clause 2 is necessary to add to the existing rights.
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Where do you see the risks of the Government rolling back their promises to EU citizens?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Professor Manning, in the White Paper the Government proposed a temporary 12-month work visa to help businesses to transition. What do you think are the possible problems with the proposed route?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
How do you see the changes to free movement affecting the economy? Do you think they will have a positive or negative impact, or do you have more detailed concernsQ ?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q Do you think that lower-skilled labour has had any impact on wage levels?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Professor Manning, you may have seen the CBI Wales analysis showing that 58% of workers in the manufacturing sector in Wales, over one quarter of whom are EU nationals, earn below the £30,000 threshold. There is real concern about how this would impact on manufacturing, in Wales in particular and across the countryQ . What analysis have you done about the potential adverse impact on the manufacturing sector?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q No one is suggesting that migrants should be exploited or paid less than they deserve, but there is also a concern in Wales that the average salary for the whole of Wales is below £30,000. Let us take the care sector, for example, which relies heavily on those coming to this country to work. If you are enforcing the £30,000 salary threshold, what on earth is the care sector in Wales supposed to do?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q No one would disagree that social care is in need of reform. Assuming that reform does not happen any time soon, I take it from your answer that the £30,000 will have an adverse threshold on the care sector.
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
We have already fallen into the trap that we fell into on Second Reading, which is to start discussing issues around the Government’s White Paper on immigration. Q Do you think that the Bill and the Government’s White Paper on immigration have set out a coherent position—a position that allows them to work together beautifully?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q We do, too—we should be doing so as well—but in terms of them working alongside each other, do you think they set out a coherent position?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Professor Manning?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q I wonder whether I can go back to your earlier points about the historic nature of the Bill, Professor Ryan. You commented that citizens of Commonwealth origin still draw their rights from the 1971 Act. Do you think that the Bill adequately defines the rights that those acquiring settled status will have?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q Do you not find it extraordinary that such a historic measure, which affects so many people in this country, does not have that provision?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Professor Manning, on behalf of the Migration Advisory Committee, in relation to EEA nationals working in this country, you were careful to say just now that the root cause of low wages in the care sector is not immigration, but rather the funding of the system. In relation to other sectors, you seem to be saying that you believe that constraint in the labour market could have a positive effect on wages. Could you just say a little bit more about what you think the channel to that is? Is it excess profits in manufacturing that management will decide to divert to wages? Is it efficiencies that the manufacturing industry has not invested in, and now will? What do you think the channel will be? It is one thing to say that immigration has been neutral to negative—your words—but another to say that constraint in the immigration system affecting the labour market will push up wages. This is not simple supply and demand, is itQ ?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q I just want to be clear about what you are saying. Obviously, there are second order effects, so there is the simple function of supply and demand, which might put pressure on employers to raise wages, but the second order effects will depend on their business circumstances. For example, take a manufacturing firm in the north of England where they have already heavily invested in machinery and robotics, where the nature of what they do has not been profitable. The car industry has not been massively profitable over the past few years. They will find it quite difficult to put wages up and maintain viability for their business.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q Has MAC disaggregated that data? Productivity gains and where they could be made affect different regional economies in quite a diverse manner. Areas dominated by manufacturing, where there has been investment, would be different from areas that have many more firms that are less productive. Does MAC have any evidence on the regional impact of the Bill?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q Okay. Professor Manning, you are saying that we do not fully understand how the Bill will affect the different locations in our country, even though, economically speaking, we know we have a pretty unequal country. We do not really know, do we?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q One final question, if I may. Professor Ryan, you have said to us on several occasions that there is a major gap in this Bill as regards EU nationals who will have settled status. You mentioned a parallel with the Windrush scandal. Is the message we should take from your evidence that unless the Bill is amended, it will open us up to another Windrush?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q Or it could.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q The clock is ticking.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
You are being very clear, Professor Ryan, that something should be written into the Bill that protects the rights of people who are here at the momentQ .
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q If you were advising the Committee, you would say, “You might as well do it now.”
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
To use your words, that would help us in “future-proofing” the Bill and make it less likely that 40 years down the line, there will be a Windrush scandal in relation to this.Q
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Because of what has happened with Windrush, we should have our eyes open to this problem in a way that perhaps people in the past did not.Q
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Professor Manning, could I come back to the issue of thresholds? At the moment, £30,000 is the threshold written in, but I think you suggested that the threshold needs to be less than that in certain areas. We talked about care, but we might also talk about something such as butchery in the food sector. Clearly, there is a shortage of those skills, and this could be a way of addressing it over the short term. Immediately, Q there would be a problem: a £30,000 threshold for something such as butchery would create significant problems in the food sector if you are at an edge.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q What my hon. Friend the Member for Torfaen said about Wales could well be said about the Lincolnshire area I am in, where average salaries are not at £30,000. You are setting a bar at a high level compared with what people are already being paid in those areas. I am with you in terms of pushing up wages. I am happy about that, but it needs to be done in a way that allows business continuity. I am trying to understand how that works.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q A little bit above.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q Going back to care, for example, a little bit above would not get you to £30,000, would it?
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q That is partly because, at the other end, Government are not putting enough money into the system. There is a bit of a dilemma there, isn’t there?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q I want to get your views on clause 1, which will repeal free movement of EU citizens. What effect will that have on overall immigration to the UK?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Clause 1 basically repeals free movement between the EU and the UK. Do you think that that will have an effect on overall immigration to the UK?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Professor Ryan, do you have a view on that?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
But do you have an idea of what the scale of that effect will be?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q You have both said in your evidence that the scope of the Bill does not cover future immigration policy, but do you have a view on how quickly that future immigration policy should follow the Bill?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Professor Ryan, you said earlier that there was not enough in the Bill. Is the Bill’s lack of detail a problem?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Professor Manning, you talked about the need to regulate against the risk of abuse of a 12-month visa. What safeguards would be needed to prevent that sort of abuse?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q On expenditure, are there any further details that you can give us on what you expect, or in which area?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
ProfessorQ Ryan, I think everyone welcomes what clause 2 does to protect the rights of Irish citizens and their leave to enter, but your written evidence and other submissions that we have received seem to suggest that it does not go far enough. What else should the Bill do to protect the position of Irish citizens?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q A couple of times you have referred to the possibility of things happening in the rules—when you were asked about separating out the immigration White Paper from the Bill. Is that not one of the problems we have in this country—that we leave so much to rules? We have had something like 5,000 changes to the immigration rules since 2010, and that gets virtually no attention in this place. Should we be rethinking how we go about setting out people’s rights and obligations in immigration law? Are you happy enough to see these constant changes to the immigration rules?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q But key rights, for example?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Turning to the question about the Government’s settled status scheme for EU nationals, one of my colleagues, the hon. Member for Scunthorpe (Nic Dakin) referred to 40 years down the line. The problem would arise sooner, as things stand, because you are talking about a cut-off date of December 2020. It could be June 2021, if there is a deal. The issue then arises that people might miss that deadline. What can be done to avoid that happening—with tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people missing out on a status that they have a right to?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Yes. Well, there are different deadlines, depending on whether there is a deal or no deal. Regardless of that, within the next couple of years tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people will be passing that deadline.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q And the benefit of that would be that in 10 years’ time, if somebody had not realised—for instance, the grandmother about whom we heard earlier; she tries to change house but fails the right to rent check, because she does not have the documentation—she would be able to apply for settled status, whereas as things stand, she would be in limbo.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q It would have a similar effect, but probably going slightly further. Just now, obviously, an EU national’s right does not depend on them having a bit of paper or a bit of code—depending on how you do it. They get the rights directly from EU law. Would it be preferable if, in this Bill, we said, “Here are the rights for people who qualify for settled status right now”? They get their rights from the statute and applying to register simply proves they have that right, rather than that they have no rights if they do not have that bit of paper. This, essentially, echoes what happens now for EU citizens: they all have rights whether or not they have a settled status document or anything else.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Professor Manning, the Government’s White Paper suggests that the proposals, if implemented, could mean that GDP is between 0.4% and 0.9% lower than it would have been otherwise in 2025, which represents a reduction in GDP per capita of between 0.1% and 0.2% in 2025 and a cumulative fiscal cost to the Treasury of between £2 billion and £4 billion over the first five years to 2025. Have you any reason to dispute those Treasury figures?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q White Paper figures.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q To follow up on that, the White Paper modelling is based on, essentially, a status quo for non-EEA.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q So, then, to try and avoid these costs to the Treasury in GDP and GDP per head, you would have to liberalise non-EEA migration?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q You could do quite a lot with £4 billion. It is easy to be relaxed about £4 billion disappearing from the Treasury.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
May I remind colleagues that this session finishes at 10.30 am? I have got two people waiting to catch my eye, one of whom we have not heard from before. I also want to give the Minister a chance.
Eleanor Smith (Labour, Wolverhampton South West)
Do you have any concerns, Professor Ryan, about British nationals living in the EU?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
The previous Government policy was to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, but the Home Secretary seems to be saying now that immigration should be at sustainable levels. Professor Ryan, what sort of factors do you think we should take into account to decide what sustainable levels are? Professor Manning, should the Migration Advisory Committee have some sort of role in assisting the Home Office to set what these sustainable levels are?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q My question is slightly different though. I was referring to “sustainable levels”. Would you ever express—or wish to express—a view on what that might be in a given year?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
If no other colleagues wish to ask questions, I will bring in the Minister.
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q I have a number of questions. Professor Manning, thank you for your hard work on the various reports, and indeed your ongoing work on students and on the shortage occupation list. In your report you veered away from sectoral schemes. Would you expand on which sectors of the economy you think might be most impacted by the end of free movement? Why do you suggest that sectoral schemes are perhaps not the solution?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q I am conscious that the Migration Advisory Committee has, over many years, given close thought to the whole issue of migration, particularly when it comes to free movement and the analysis of the impact that has, and will have. What role do you see for the Migration Advisory Committee going forward?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q I have a final question for you, Professor Manning, on shortage occupation lists. We have heard about shortages in the care industry and other parts of the economy. Do you see the SOLs, and potentially regional shortage occupation lists, as one mechanism by which you can resolve those challenges after the end of free movement?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Thank you. Professor Ryan, thank you for your really extensive written evidence, and for the thought that went into it—it is very impressive and helpful. I want to talk to you a bit about the settled status scheme, and whether from a legal perspective you think that the rights of EU citizens would be best enshrined in this Bill or in a specific vehicle, namely the withdrawal Bill, which will encompass all the elements of the withdrawal agreement should we get that agreed by Parliament.
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q The settlement scheme is already up and running in public testing mode now. The legislation is in both secondary legislation and immigration rules. I concur with you that it is important to have it in primary legislation. Do you see any legal difficulty with the status quo prevailing, where the scheme is open, and we have it enshrined in secondary legislation, albeit not primary? Does it matter if there is a timing gap?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
The settled scheme is up and running. We are awarding EU citizens their status, and we have achieved that by secondary legislation; we laid various statutory instruments that enabled us to open the settlement scheme. Whether as part of the withdrawal Bill or potentially as part of this Bill, do you see any challenge whatsoever with a gap between the end of free movement and the rights of individuals through the settlement scheme being enshrined in primary legislation?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Yes.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Order. I am afraid that we will never know the answer to that question, because we have come to the end of our allotted time. On behalf of the Committee, I thank both witnesses for their time. Thank you very much indeed, gentlemen.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Welcome, Lord Green and Dr Greening. We have until 11 o’clock for this session. I think we all felt that the previous session went very quickly, and I am sure this will go even more quickly. First, could you please introduce yourselves?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Splendid. Which colleague would like to ask the first question? I call Afzal Khan.
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q I have a question for Lord Green. Would you agree that there are certain professions that are not highly paid but are nevertheless highly skilled?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q I believe you have expressed concern about the Government’s ability to enforce the deadline on the 12-month visa. Can you elaborate on your concerns?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Do you think the Government will be able to make sure that anyone who comes on a 12-month visa leaves at the end of that period?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q What do you think of Border Force? Is it adequately resourced at present?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q What are the risks associated with giving the Government carte blanche to introduce a replacement immigration system?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Lord Green, the Clerk has taken careful note of your remarks about the balance of witnesses. I did not have any hand in it, and we will reflect on the issue.
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q Would you agree that delivering on free movement and on the control of free movement, which the Bill would achieve, would be a key part of delivering on the 2016 referendum result?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q What do you think would be the consequences of not delivering on the control of free movement?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q I think you have been very firm in your views on levels of migration being too high. What is the right level of migration?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q I became an MP in 2015, as it happens, but I remember the history you are setting out. Surely it is not the case that the needs of the economy in the 2020s will be the same as they were in the 1990s.
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Q The right level of migration for the 2020s will be very different from what it was in the 1990s.
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Once we have left the EU, can you envisage any scenario in which EU citizens should be given preference in a future immigration system?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
We have just heard from Professor Manning about seasonal workers, for example. The NFU has sent out a briefing for a debate this afternoon, which makes it clear that the food and farming business is worth £113 billion to our economy. As we have just heard from Professor Manning, seasonal workers mainly from EU countries make up a significant percentage of that. Can I ask the question again: once we have left the EU, can you see any preference within that system for EU citizens?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Can I ask about reciprocal arrangements? Do you have any concerns about British nationals living in the EU? Do you think there should be any preference for British nationals living and working in the EU? If you see no preference for EU nationals here, what would the reciprocal arrangements be?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
We are more than halfway through this session, and we have not heard anything from Dr Greening.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q If I may say so, I would hesitate to describe anybody who comes to work in this country as “shipped in”. I think that is unfortunate. I want to ask about our ageing population, to follow up on the question asked by my colleague Nick Thomas-Symonds. Do you think that the dependency ratio, under the situation that you envisage with reduced immigration, will get better or worse?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q You described people coming to work in this country as being “shipped in”.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q It is unfortunate language, with respect, Lord Green. It is dehumanising language.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q The point has been made. How do you see your proposal as improving—or otherwise—our dependency ratio in the labour market?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q What would you like the retirement age to be raised to—something like 70 or 75?
Gavin Newlands (Scottish National Party, Paisley and Renfrewshire North)
I want to follow on the back of Ms McGovern’s question. You did speak of humans as being shipped in and shipped out, as if they were canned goods rather than actual human beings. That leads me to a point you raised in the oral evidence session for the previous Immigration Bill, when you described asylum seekers, Q and victims of exploitation and traffickers, as “these people”. Would you agree that this sort of careless and dehumanising terminology has fuelled much of the anti-immigrant rhetoric in the UK, and has perhaps even led to Brexit itself?
Gavin Newlands (Scottish National Party, Paisley and Renfrewshire North)
Q It may not be a public speech, but it is very much on the record, and I have to say that that is not very helpful. In terms of the Bill itself and border enforcement, I think that during evidence on the previous Immigration Bill—this was in late 2015—you said that something around £750 million a year was being spent, which you described as absolute peanuts. Do you think that the Border Force and the Home Office are adequately resourced to deal with the post-Brexit migration system?
Gavin Newlands (Scottish National Party, Paisley and Renfrewshire North)
Q Would you care to elaborate on how much more should be spent or is required?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Do you have any thoughts on how the settlement scheme has been set up for EU nationals who are already there? Do you anticipate any difficulties in making sure that as close as possible to 100% have applied for settled status by the deadline?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Professor Ryan specifically suggested removing the deadline altogether. Do you think that is a sensible proposal?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q The motivation to apply for settled status is that if you do not have it, you will not be able to work or rent, and so on. Even without an official deadline, surely that would be enough in itself. You are saying, “All this will come into force for you on a certain date,” and surely that is sufficient motivation to encourage people to apply in advance.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Is that really a satisfactory response, when we are probably talking about a couple of hundred thousand people?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Two hundred thousand people being unable to access employment or housing or whatever else is not a teething problem, with respect.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Lord Green has highlighted the problems in terms of funding for Home Office administration. I think the Home Office is pulling out all the stops and doing its best to try to register as many EU nationals as it can, but even if it achieves a 90% success rate, 400,000 people will still be in a similar situation to the Windrush generation.
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q The problem I have is not about enforcement. I do not want people who fail to meet the deadline to be enforced against; I want them to be able to apply and to have their cases processed in time.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q I think you were saying earlier that this legislation as it stands, along with the White Paper, is likely to lead to an increase in inward migration. Is that right? That was my understanding.
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q Given that we are setting a future direction now, what would you like to see in this legislation to make that less likely to happen?
Nicholas Dakin (Labour, Scunthorpe)
Q So that is how you would tackle the issue of butchery, for example, which I raised earlier?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
If no other colleague wishes to ask a question, perhaps we will give the final opportunity to the Minister.
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q We have three minutes to go, and I will try to give you time to answer, Lord Green. We have heard from employers’ groups, among others, that what they want from a future immigration system is simplicity, and of course free movement has the advantage of being very simple. Do you think that simplicity is important, or would you prefer to see a much more complicated scheme, perhaps such as what you have just begun to outline, with differential costs of visas depending on which year of stay people are in?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q A number of members of the Committee asked about flexibility and meeting the future needs of the economy. How important do you consider it to be that we should have a future immigration system that allows a level of flexibility?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Taking the £30,000 threshold as suggested by MAC, do you see a case in which, potentially, that could go up year on year?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Yes.
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Do you think that salary level is always necessarily a proxy for skill?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Lord Green, thank you very much for your evidence to the Committee.
Examination of Witness
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
This final session is even shorter—we have only until 25 past 11. Will our witness kindly introduce himself?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Your organisation played a key support role in the Windrush scandal. Do you think the Government have addressed the systematic issues in the Home Office so that another Windrush for EEA citizens who are about to come under the UK’s immigration system can be avoided?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Do you feel there is a real risk of EU citizens having the same difficulty as the Windrush people?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q On clause 4, what concerns do you have about the scope of powers granted to the Home Office to create an immigration system through secondary legislation, and how well do you think the system of parliamentary scrutiny of immigration is working at the moment?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q In the light of what you have said about the complexity and difficulty of the system, would it have been helpful if the Government had followed the Law Commission’s idea of simplifying immigration and then added the 3 million or 4 million, so that it would have been easier to operate?
Eleanor Smith (Labour, Wolverhampton South West)
Q What changes would you like to see the Government make—I think you have just mentioned this—to the EU settlement scheme?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q In your briefing, you said that you would prefer the UK to have a simpler immigration system overall. Does removing free movement for EU citizens and standardising it for citizens—whether from the EU, the Commonwealth or the rest of the world—not answer your request for a simpler immigration system?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q In a new system would you want to see any preferential rights given to EU citizens as opposed to citizens from the rest of the world?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Mr Patel, you have declared your preference for a declaratory EU settlement scheme, which I think is a very good idea. Professor Ryan’s alternative would be simply to remove the cut-off date for applications. Have you any thoughts about the pros and cons of that argument?Q
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q That is an interesting point, thank you. We heard Professor Manning talking about some of the challenges or problems with the one-year visas that are proposed in the White Paper, as a stop-gap measure for so-called lower-skilled forms of work. He talked about the potential for exploitation and problems with integration. Have you any thoughts on that type of visa?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q On a different question, were you surprised there are no appeal rights for EU citizens in relation to the settled status scheme in the Bill? Or are they expected somewhere else?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q The Government might suggest that the best place for them is the withdrawal agreement implementation Act, or whatever it will be called, but does that leave us with a problem? The Government seem to be suggesting that there will not be formal rights of appeal in the event of no deal. What are your concerns about that?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q You have argued that the Bill should be withdrawn and should instead form part of a wider Bill that encompasses the future immigration system. How does that sit with the commitment to leave the EU and end free movement as soon as possible?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Do you not recognise that the Bill is a critical component of delivering the 2016 referendum result? That is the question that the previous witness was asked.
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q The question that I was going to ask about appeal rights has been largely covered, but may I ask whether you feel that it is rather exceptional within our immigration system to deny any appeal rights to a category of people who seek status within the UK?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q How confident are you that the option offered by the Home Office of administrative review, and ultimately judicial review, provides any real opportunities for challenge within the system?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Very brief questions and brief answers.
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q Following Brexit, do you think that there should be a preferential system for all EU citizens?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q You said the Bill is premature. Can you quickly give us your major concerns about the Bill?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q I am sure that Hansard will correct me if I misheard you, but I think you said very early on in your evidence that short-term visas inevitably lead to exploitation. Do you think that the same holds true for seasonal agricultural worker schemes, or perhaps the tier 5 youth mobility schemes?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Is it your contention that we should not have an agricultural worker scheme, and should perhaps seek to do away with tier 5?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q One final question. Under the EU settlement scheme, the plan is that people are not to be presented with a physical document but essentially with a bit of code that the employer can go away and check. Does that give rise to any concerns about how that will work?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
That brings us to the end of the session. Thank you very much, Mr Patel, for the time that you have spent with the Committee.
Examination of Witnesses
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Colleagues, before we continue to take oral evidence, could we turn our mobiles phones off? I think only one went off this morning. I have checked mine. Representations have been made to me about tea and coffee. Unfortunately, until the Panel of Chairs, under the excellent chairmanship of Sir Lindsay Hoyle, changes its view, I am afraid only water is allowed—and we are not even in lent.
We will now hear oral evidence from Universities UK, the Trades Union Congress and the Royal College of Nursing. We have until 3 o’clock to take evidence from these good people. Would the witnesses kindly introduce themselves?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Thank you very much. Professor, you may have to project your voice.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
That is better.
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
I thank all three of you for coming today. I will start with the TUC, although I will probably bring all of you in later down the road. What in the BillQ 109 do you see as a threat to social security or as increasing the potential for exploitation?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q What protections are needed to make sure that the Government’s proposed seasonal agricultural workers scheme and temporary 12-month work visas do not lead to exploitation?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q The next question probably applies, in different parts, to all three of you. What experience do you have with the current system for non-EU migrants, and what do you make of the Government’s proposals? I would particularly like for Universities UK and the Royal College of Nursing to comment on the current tier 2 route, and for the TUC to comment on the proposed 12-month temporary visas.
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q Can I ask the other two witnesses to comment on the effect that the £30,000 minimum would have on their sectors and members?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Professor Kinnair, the chair of the Migration Advisory Committee gave evidence to us this morning, and he said that he did not feel that immigration should be used to deal with staff shortages. He argued that we should be paying people significantly higher wages. Is it not true that the RCN should be lobbying for nurses’ pay, rather than trying to keep wages down by promoting immigration to fill the gapsQ ?
Maria Caulfield (Conservative, Lewes)
Q I have a follow-up question on that. This Bill is about ending freedom of movement for EU workers—EU nurses and midwives. The latest figures from the Nursing & Midwifery Council show that the greatest increase in the number of nurses registering with it has come from non-EU nurses—2,808—so there is clearly a group of nurses from outside the EU who want to register and work here, but it is difficult for them to do so because of the restrictions in place. Do you welcome the level playing field that would enable nurses from outside the EU to come and work in the NHS as easily as EU nurses and midwives can do currently?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q May I ask Universities UK to comment on the £30,000 minimum income threshold?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q The NHS and universities were both part of the pilot for EU settled status. What feedback have you had from your members on issues with that system so far?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
IQ have a few questions, which I want to put first to the TUC representative. You talked about having a system that would allow EU citizens similar access to the UK as they enjoy now. How do you think that that would square with the referendum result in 2016, and the clear indication that people wanted to end freedom of movement?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q So your view is that free movement should continue.
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q My second question is to the professor. We heard evidence this morning that there is on average a lower proportion of EU workers in the NHS and the care sector than in other sectors, so do you think that ending free movement would have such a significant effect on the NHS and the care sector?
Jack Brereton (Conservative, Stoke-on-Trent South)
Q The key point that I was trying to understand was: would changing the ability of new nurses to come here from the EU have an impact on the NHS? I was not talking about the ones who are already here.
Kate Green (Labour, Stretford and Urmston)
I have two or three questions, probably mainly for the TUC. Again, they are about the £30,000 threshold. In Greater Manchester, for which I am an MP, the average salary is quite a bit below £30,000, and that will be true in a number of other parts of the country, too. We also know that younger workers and women are likely to be on lower salaries. Does the TUC have a view on whether there should be different thresholds for different industry sectors, different workers or different geographies? Perhaps Vivienne and Donna would also like to reply.Q
Kate Green (Labour, Stretford and Urmston)
Q And your suggestion for addressing it is to lower the threshold.
Kate Green (Labour, Stretford and Urmston)
Q What would you suggest would be more useful in identifying the roles that need to be filled? How would we measure that?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
MyQ colleague asked part of the question that I wanted to ask, regarding comments made this morning by the Migration Advisory Committee about EEA migrant workers making up a lower fraction of care assistants and NHS workers than the national average. Did you say that the percentage of nurses from the EEA is 10%?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Is that 10% of the entire workforce?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
It would be helpful if we could have some clarification.
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q Do you know what percentage of your overall workforce is from overseas?
Tracey Crouch (Conservative, Chatham and Aylesford)
Q That would be enormously helpful. I have a very quick question for Universities UK. The Home Secretary said explicitly on Second Reading that there would be no cap on student numbers. Did that provide you with the reassurance you were looking for in terms of students?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
On that theme, I think I am right in saying there are around 450,000 international students in the UK. What proportion of those are from the EUQ ?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q Vice-chancellors I have talked to across the sector suggest that universities might be planning to lose up to 80% of EU students. Is that a figure that strikes a chord with you?
Paul Blomfield (Labour, Sheffield Central)
Q May I return to the question of academic staff? I asked vice-chancellors in Sheffield how many early career academics could not be here if they were subject to the non-EEA immigration rules. They said that something like 600 would have no right to be in the country under that regime. Does that reflect the picture across the country?
David Duguid (Conservative, Banff and Buchan)
There has been a great deal of comment about the inclusion of students in the net migration statistics. Does Universities UK have any evidence to illustrate the impact of overseas students on healthcare provision, public transport and that kind of thingQ ?
David Duguid (Conservative, Banff and Buchan)
I thank you for your response; I am only sorry that Mr Newlands was not here to hear you refer to his hometown.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
ProfessorQ Kinnair, to begin with, this morning we heard from Migration Watch and I asked them what they thought the consequences might be of restricting immigration to this country in the way that they say they have ambitions to achieve, and what that would do to our labour market and the dependency ratio, which is the ratio between the number of people working and the number of retired people. The response was that, of course, the retirement age would need to rise in line with their proposals.
Professor Kinnair, could you just give us what you think the view would be from the nursing profession if the Government, in response to the policy choices we are making now, were required to raise the retirement age to, say, 70?
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Probably more so, because they do a physical job.
Alison McGovern (Labour, Wirral South)
Q Rosa, any thoughts on this particular subject?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Colleagues, we have under 15 minutes left and at least four more people wanting to ask questions and I want to allow time for the Minister.
Kemi Badenoch (Conservative, Saffron Walden)
I want to pick up on the point just made by RosaQ Crawford about UK citizens not wanting to do undesirable work and the need for migrants to do it. Do you think that sort of rhetoric is appropriate—that certain types of job are not good for UK citizens and we need other people from elsewhere to come in and do them? Do you not think that creates a perception that dirty, tough and difficult jobs are for other people and not for us? I say this as an immigrant myself.
Kemi Badenoch (Conservative, Saffron Walden)
Q I am going to stop you because you are not answering the question that I asked. I hear you on the discussion on labour market regulation, but that is something completely different. It was about the rhetoric which you just used, and perhaps you did not hear yourself when you said it. I am going to assume that you did not quite mean what you said, that undesirable jobs are for people outside this country.
Eleanor Smith (Labour, Wolverhampton South West)
Under the proposal in the White Paper, the UK will move to a system where every single migrant entering as a student or under the skilled route from any country will need to be sponsored. There have been concerns about this will raise an additional burden on businesses, universities, the NHS, schools and charities. What are your views on thisQ ?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
MsQ Stern, may I ask you first about the £30,000 threshold? In particular, let me take technicians, who you mentioned earlier, as an example. When Professor Manning or the MAC are challenged on this, they will say it is not just a £30,000 threshold, because you have this new starter salary of £20,800. Why does that not help answer the problems that you would have in attracting technicians?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Thank you. You mentioned concern with the low take-up in relation to the settled status scheme. Do you worry about the implications of that if staff members do not make the deadline put in place by the Government and would you support any moves to scrap that deadline or make the system a declaratory one?
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Professor Kinnair, going back to the issue of the £30,000 threshold, I remember your “Scrap the cap” campaign very well, which I and many colleagues supported. You have done a great deal of work trying to raise nurses’ salaries, and I would be fully in favour of that. Is not the reality that at the moment there are 90,000 to 120,000 nurses from overseas in our NHS?Q
Nick Thomas-Symonds (Labour, Torfaen)
Yes, collectively. But if there was ever a measure that restricted the number of nurses coming from overseas, such as the £30,000 threshold, clearly that would have a detrimental effect on the NHS. It is as simple as that.
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Professor Kinnair, I have a question on shortage occupation lists and the removal of doctors and nurses from the tier 2 cap. Notwithstanding the £30,000 threshold, do you see the shortage occupation list and a lower salary threshold as a potential solution to that?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q I have a question for Vivienne. We know that last year the number of applications from international students rose by 9%. I want to clarify your comment that EU students have a lot of choice. We will agree on that. They can go all over the continent for their university education. The phrase you used was, “We seem to make it difficult for them to come”. But we have free movement, so is that us—the Government—making it difficult for them, or is it the universities?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q It is, but we know that the numbers are up. You specifically referred to EU students and said that we make it “difficult for them to come”. How?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q So you were not talking about it in the context of EU students having a lot of choice?
Caroline Nokes (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Q Can I just clarify that Universities UK has long lobbied for more generous post-study work visas. Those proposals are included in the White Paper. What calculations have you made on how many more students you expect to see on top of the 9% increase in visa applications we saw last year?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Order. I really am sorry; we needed a lot more time. On behalf of the Committee, I thank our three witnesses. We are very grateful for the evidence you have presented to us today.
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
We will now take evidence from Liberty and Justice. I welcome our witnesses. We have until 4 o’clock for this session. Please both introduce yourselves.
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q What concerns do you have about the Henry VIII powers granted to Ministers by the Bill?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q The Bill would bring EEA citizens under UK immigration law and into the hostile environment. What do you think the impact has been of the hostile environment thus far? What would be the effect of extending it in the Bill?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q On the question of indefinite detention, why have you proposed a 28-day limit on immigration detention? Why is that particularly needed in the context of the Bill?
David Duguid (Conservative, Banff and Buchan)
Q Either or both of you can answer this question. Is there any justification for creating an immigration system post Brexit that treats EU nationals better than those from the rest of the world? If so, how do you imagine that would be best achieved? If you think there is no justification, that is a reasonable answer.
David Duguid (Conservative, Banff and Buchan)
Q But is it your view that EU nationals, because they are moving from a position of having freedom of movement to a future immigration policy of a different kind, should retain some preferential treatment over non-EEA migrants?
David Duguid (Conservative, Banff and Buchan)
Q Ms Bradley, does Liberty have a different or a similar view?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Could I turn to you first, Ms Blackstock? You were talking about improving the settled status scheme and putting it in the Bill. Do you think that scheme should be a declaratory scheme or the one that we have now, where essentially you do not have any rights until you have applied under the scheme? Do you understand the question I am getting at?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Sure. In evidence this morning, we heard concerns raised about the risk that tens of thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of people will miss the deadline and in doing so will end up with absolutely no status and subject to all the hostile environment measures that we heard about earlier. If you make the scheme declaratory—I think that is the word that the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants used—you are essentially getting that document just as evidence of rights that you already have thanks to the Bill, rather than having to apply before you have any rights. It would be somewhat similar to the permanent resident scheme we have now. Does that make any sense to you at all?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q Any thoughts on that, Ms Bradley? Do you have concerns about how to fix or address this problem? Inevitably, even if the Home Office does a fantastic job and gets 90% or 95% of EU citizens through the process in time, we are still talking about tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people who will miss the deadline. How do we prevent that from happening?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q In terms of decisions where people have been refused settled status so far, what is your understanding of how much information people are given about what the Home Office has learned about how long they have been here, or how long it considers them to have been here?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Q No worries at all. Jodie Blackstock, you spoke about the section 3 powers that Ministers have to make immigration rules and said that you wanted them limited in some way. Could you say a little more about that?
Stuart McDonald (Scottish National Party, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East)
Any thoughts on that, Ms Bradley?
Eleanor Smith (Labour, Wolverhampton South West)
Q What impact will the Bill have on migration to the UK post Brexit?
Kate Green (Labour, Stretford and Urmston)
Q I would like to ask you about social security rights. To what extent does the Bill protect, or fail to protect, the existing social security rights of EU nationals in the UK? Given that those rights and the arrangements that apply are reciprocal, what are the implications of the legislation for UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU?
Kate Green (Labour, Stretford and Urmston)
Q Can you offer an explanation or a suggestion as to why, in addition to the powers that already exist in section 8 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, we need these provisions?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q You spoke briefly about data protection and legal aid. Could you elaborate on that, and are there other safeguards that you would like to see?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q I have a question for Justice. In relation to the discussion we were having about the powers in clause 5, is there anything that Ministers would need those powers to do that is not already within their power and would not warrant primary legislation?
Afzal Khan (Labour, Manchester, Gorton)
Q This is another question for Liberty. You talked about 5,000 changes since 2010. That is huge, and it is why people say that our immigration system is really complex. We have also had the Law Commission talking about trying to simplify it. Would you not expect the Government to look at that first, before they add in another 3 million or 4 million EU citizens who will be subject to these immigration laws?
Sir David Amess (Conservative, Southend West)
Before I bring the Minister in, does any other colleague want to ask anything?